The U.s. economy is expected that growth will slow down in 2024. Banks and other leading economists predict GDP growth of the country this year to between 0.5 – 2%. J. P. Morgan cautious forecast at 0.7%, while organizing the Conference Board launched the estimate was 0.9%. CBO forecasts economic growth will slow down at the rate of 1.5%. Can see a few bright spots possible from the U.s. economy in the year 2023.
World investment and the policy makers Americans have inflation expectations will fall after peaking in 4 decades in summer 2022. However, the less one can know ahead of inflation will be down stairs so fast. Speed increased annually by the consumer price index (CPI) of the U.s. have decreased by 3.1% in the 11 months past, from the level of 9.1% in February 6/2022.
A recent report by economist Ian Shepherdson stressed that the pace of decline in inflation such as “significant”. Chief economist Mark Zandi of Moody's Analytics forecast to end the year 2024, inflation will reduce near the 2% target the Fed set.
One of the reasons that inflation in the U.s. fell fast as gas prices go down. After crossing the landmark $ 5/gallon in 2022, the price of gasoline in this country has fallen sharply in the year 2023. GasBuddy – an app about the price of gasoline in the U.s. and Canada – forecast gasoline price average in the U.s. will continue to fall this year, to help consumers save 32 billion of that money to buy gasoline.
With inflation abated, the Fed has halted the rise in interest rates in the 3 meetings in a row, after 11 rally deluge threat to economic growth and to make investors nervous.
Officials at the Fed is expected to reduce interest rates 3 times this year. The Fed reduced interest rates will mean the central bank of the world, declared victory in the fight against inflation.
Mr. Zandi said that the Fed will cut interest rates 4 times in year 2024, can start on January 5. Meanwhile, bank Goldman Sachs predicts the Fed reduced interest rates for the first time will take place on march 3.
Interest rate reduction will be an unfreeze for American consumers, because it will reduce the cost of the home mortgage loan, home loan, car loan, credit cards. Interest rate home mortgage loan in this country has dropped from nearly 8% on January 10 down 6.6 percent at the end of year 2023.
Inflation reduction, anxiety depression dissolve gradually, and the prospect of interest rate cuts are stimulating the stock price on Wall Street rose sharply. The S&P 500 ended the year 2023 chain 9-week increase in a row – the longest since 2004. The Nasdaq increased by 43% for the whole year, just a little more, it marks the year increased the most powerful 2 decades.
Of course, the happenings of the stock market does not always reflect accurately the situation in the economy. There are five stocks up even though the economy is not really stable, and vice versa. But the current momentum of the U.s. securities primarily reflecting the optimistic outlook of the economy, the declining trend of inflation.
Despite campaigns to increase interest rates by the Fed, the unemployment rate in the U.s. is only at the level of 3.7%, near the lowest in half a century. The number of people claiming unemployment, first, an indicator of active dismissal of the employers, are at a record low, only about at 218,000/week. This is considered to be indication that the employer does not want to dismissal.
“The number of people claiming unemployment first time are very low. Alarm bells just sounding when the number of people claiming unemployment first rise near the level of 300,000 people a week. We also figure that a distance very far,” said Zandi stressed.
If this trend lasts, the consumer will be backed, that consumer is the ships main growth of the American economy. “When fired less, the economy remains stable. We are in a circle economy as well,” the expert stated.
In the majority of the time the Us economic recovery after the pandemic Covid-19, the prices in this country increased faster than wages of workers, meaning real wages – after subtracting inflation – decline.
However, this trend has started to reverse in recent times, with the rate of increase of wages catch up with inflation. Mr. Zandi and mr. Wolfers have expressed optimism that the pace of wage growth in the U.s. will be accelerated in the year 2024.
“With inflation maintained at a low level, income will catch up and will exceed inflation. People will start to feel everything better,” mr. Zandi stressed.
Business Insider refers to the field of entertainment and technology. In the year 2023, many people had to spend thousands of DOLLARS to watch concerts, travel, and participate in the event. This makes the price of movie tickets and watch the music, up 4.4% compared with the previous year.
TikTok is also the center of a number of economic trends, such as food processing from the raw materials available and affordable, which helps reduce food costs. Meanwhile, Chat GPT is considered the tool has the ability to help people work more productive, but also threatens to deprive the work of many people. While many economists not sure artificial intelligence (AI) that affect the job market, but a number of comments for that AI can help companies increase productivity and revenue.